Caleb Williams took a major leap forward in his second NFL season, flourishing during his first year under head coach Ben Johnson. The young quarterback threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just seven interceptions, guiding the Chicago Bears to an 11-6 record, an NFC North title, and their first playoff victory since 2011.
Williams also cemented his reputation as one of the league’s most clutch quarterbacks, leading the NFL with seven game-winning drives in 2025, tied with Bo Nix. That included six regular-season comebacks and a dramatic wild-card win over the Green Bay Packers.
Because of that breakout, bettors are already heavily backing the former No. 1 overall pick as he enters Year 3. According to BetMGM NFL insights, Williams has emerged as the biggest liability in the MVP market, drawing 11.8% of all tickets and 13.5% of the total handle. The former Heisman Trophy winner currently sits at +1400 odds, tied with reigning MVP Matthew Stafford for the eighth-best. He still trails a loaded group at the top, including Josh Allen (+550), Lamar Jackson (+650), Patrick Mahomes (+1000), Justin Herbert (+1000), Joe Burrow (+1000), Drake Maye (+1100), and Dak Prescott (+1300).
On a recent episode of “The Herd,” Colin Cowherd echoed what many bettors are already signaling. “To me, Caleb Williams is the No. 1 preseason MVP, Josh Allen at No. 2,” Cowherd said. “A lot of it is, and nothing against Joe Brady, but he’s not Ben Johnson. So I think he (Caleb) should be the favorite. Some guys are more fun to watch and easier to vote for.”
Despite the public heavily backing Williams, history tells a different story. No quarterback has ever won MVP in their third NFL season. As the reigning 2025 NFC North champions, the Bears will face first-place teams from the other NFC divisions. Chicago enters 2026 with the sixth-hardest strength of schedule in the entire NFL. At age 24, Williams looks to become the youngest MVP since Jackson back in 2019.
